Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-23 25.531871 28.193328 31.210453 34.929277 39.455415 44.876668 52.009892
2025-03-02 21.669457 25.056285 29.225581 34.894339 42.681685 53.500266 70.758101
2025-03-09 19.021255 22.703867 27.510993 34.552690 45.240175 62.241786 95.485716
2025-03-16 17.103890 20.897005 26.071450 34.110993 47.384499 71.325845 129.655865
2025-03-23 15.671764 19.499313 24.907046 33.728895 49.408566 81.297008 180.915093
2025-03-30 14.577517 18.413664 23.995765 33.496613 51.561068 92.960722 267.716235
2025-04-06 13.547693 17.298372 22.873741 32.666915 52.286226 101.978856 389.255504
2025-04-13 13.188959 17.116458 23.148024 34.281119 58.596405 132.508202 1150.388241
2025-04-20 12.508398 16.380765 22.437790 33.943779 60.429318 151.539129 4505.897710
2025-04-27 12.013191 15.883719 22.057791 34.160129 63.732773 182.532296 NaN
2025-05-04 11.596569 15.472524 21.772195 34.505295 67.571946 226.276357 NaN
2025-05-11 11.183179 15.033449 21.390103 34.578791 70.730511 278.350937 NaN
2025-05-18 10.712787 14.478287 20.765100 34.059663 72.015108 325.833153 NaN
2025-05-25 10.359374 14.091655 20.408834 34.086443 75.222775 418.966290 NaN
2025-06-01 9.994172 13.663133 19.939554 33.784378 77.231973 526.415605 NaN
2025-06-08 9.645920 13.243002 19.452350 33.370505 78.723286 663.199468 NaN
2025-06-15 9.331680 12.863026 19.011510 33.007209 80.338531 870.260818 NaN
2025-06-22 9.057807 12.536974 18.648518 32.785404 82.535210 1253.572475 NaN
2025-06-29 8.738858 12.119390 18.083033 31.985726 81.885721 1528.302957 NaN
2025-07-06 8.695005 12.169212 18.421045 33.543475 93.368813 15365.054039 NaN
2025-07-13 8.459641 11.875553 18.063194 33.218372 95.277960 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 8.291094 11.690728 17.909274 33.427105 100.445087 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 8.143734 11.536029 17.804723 33.759949 106.828627 NaN NaN